Political Popcorn; Obama Butters

The timing of Senator Olympia Snowe's announcement has created high drama in Maine's political scene. Blogs around Maine have been popping over night, given the collision of Republican Snowe's announcement with Maine's election timetable. It's likely Maine will see a three-way race for the seat.

Sen. Snowe sent out an email around dinner time yesterday saying she wouldn't run for another term. The deadline for filing papers to run in the primary here is March 15. Filing requires presenting 2,000 valid signatures.

(Sheepscot, Photo By Jan)

The Senator's timing makes it just about impossible for an upstart to run for her seat - candidates normally spend months building an organization, raising funds, and gathering signatures. The only people likely to file papers in two weeks are those with enough personal funds to purchase the services of a commercial signature gathering infrastructure and top-flite political operatives. Or, those who already have those campaign elements in place - in other words, incumbents.

However the deadline for filing to run in the general election - not a party's primary - is June 1st. Thus an independent could still have enough time to create a campaign.

It's difficult to see a strong candidate emerging in enough time on the Republican side, not that the Republican bloggers would agree. So far, our Tea Party governor, whose name I don't mention in this blog, says he's not interested in Snowe's seat.

There are a number of Democrats who could mount strong candidacies, not the least of which are our two sitting Congresspeople. One school of thought favors northern Congressman Mike Michaud, on the grounds he would add votes from the more conservative north, while liberal southern Democrats would vote for him as the best hope to turn the seat Democratic. Michaud is a conservative Democrat, and has a strong campaign structure in place.

First District Congresswoman Chellie Pingree has personal money and a top-notch campaign staff; the reasoning goes, she'd be strong in any race given the increasing shift of political power in Maine to the more liberal and populous south. If Con. Pingree won, some can't resist speculating that her daughter, former Speaker of the Maine House Hannah Pingree, would run for her mom's seat. A progressive dynasty!

Given Maine's political history and the low esteem with which many people here hold traditional political parties, there's room in the middle for an independent. Such a person would be free from the March 15 deadline.

Independent Eliot Cutler, who lost narrowly to our present tea bag governor, has already been working on a third party effort. He has access to operatives and money, and name recognition. There's also been a lot of speculation about former governor Angus King, a very popular guy who was not affiliated with either party, although he tended to support Republicans.

(Photo By Jan)

Cong. Pingree would be the dream candidate: an adept politician, genuinely progressive. She can and should win. The next several days will be a especially lively in Maine politics.

Meanwhile, Pres. Obama is buttering up liberal critics. You may recall the outrage over radical abridgments of civil liberties in the Defense Appropriation bill signed into law by the President at the very end of 2011. The Administration has now issued guidelines that exempt almost all Americans from being dragged into military courts. You can see a summary of the guidelines here:

http://jnslp.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/ndaa-fact-sheet-final.pdf

The guidelines don't change the basic structure of the bill, which still bleeds our civilian legal system over into the military realm. Even so, the guidelines are an important constructive step by the President, and maybe even an indication that he's paying better attention to the more progressive voices in our country.