In 1967, our graduation speaker at the University of Wisconsin (Madison) was the Secretary General of the UN, U Thant. He canceled his appearance at the last moment, which is how I learned that what we now call the Six Day War had just begun.
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First of all, let's be really clear that this is a consequential topic because it involves the risk of nuclear and large-scale war - we ignore it at our peril. Yet there is no way to know in advance (a) what is really going on in Teheran, Tel Aviv and Washington, nor in ultra-secret underground nuclear facilities; nor (b) what of the many pronouncements from officials and experts are actual information and opinions, and what are feints, bluffs, disinformation and other forms of taxpayer-funded lies.
There are increasing threats from Israel to bomb Iran, to prevent it from completing its decades-long development of nuclear weapons. It is imagined that if Israel bombs or otherwise attacks Iran, at the least the result will be massive retaliation against Israel by Hezbollah and Hamas, and possibly larger scale warfare in the Middle East. If not beyond those borders......
There is no doubt that an Israeli attack on Iran would change history.
2. A prominent question asks, is Iran really close to producing a functioning nuclear weapon? This concern is pivotal in the case of Iran because of their repeated assertions that they will destroy the State of Israel. Thus their obtaining nuclear weapons can be seen as an immediate existential threat to Israel. Under the "rules" of international states, it's understood if a neighbor says they will attack you and they have the means to do so, you may have justification for preemptively defending yourself.
3. Another question is, would bombing Iran work? It's not known, at least in public, where all the various parts of Iran's nuclear establishment are, and of course no one knows what they don't know. Some of the centrifuge facilities (where radioactive material is concentrated to the degree required for a bomb) are said to be so deep underground that even huge non-nuclear US "bunker busting" bombs can't reach them.
Non-military means have been tried to stop the Iranian bomb building program, such as the Stuxnet virus and probably other forms of industrial sabotage. What's chilling about those efforts is how readily one can picture the pronouncements from officials in Tel Aviv - or Washington - solemnly telling us that bombing was unfortunately necessary since all less violent methods of dissuading the Iranians such as industrial sabotage and boycotts had failed.
4. Is this solely an Israeli issue? President Obama's regime has not had a happy relationship with Israel, but in general our countries are very closely aligned in the geopolitical realm. It's difficult to picture Israel bombing Iran without the involvement of our country, however overt or tacit that might be. The President's varying remarks on Iran or the Stuxnet effort can be taken at face value - or - as a cynical preparation for our country's leader sadly shaking his head and saying, gosh they tried everything they could, we guess Israel had no choice. And no matter what level of suspicion you may want to harbor about the prospect of Israel bombing Iran, I can't see a version of events that would not be a crisis for the USA.
One thing that's easier to agree on is that there's no justification for Iran to have a nuclear weapon. While we can and should debate methods, getting rid of the threat of nuclear weapons in Iran is very appealing, especially given Iran's bellicose statements about Israel and the US.
Another consideration is the danger that Iranian retribution will not be confined to its surrogates launching missiles into Israeli towns and cities. Specifically, that retaliation will spread, even to this country, which is seen as Israel's principal sponsor in much of the radical or militant Moslem world. And there is no doubt that if Israel did bomb Iran, US military and security forces around the world and within our country would have to assume that retaliation was plausible. They'd invoke heavy defensive measures that could range from increased airport security to suspension of habeas corpus. Or worse. Bombing in Iran would quickly produce significant effects for all of us.
And finally, there's an election going on here. Israel's attack on Iran would be politically seismic, and one can imagine the two political parties racing to out-do each other in militancy, grim-jawed determination, and flag waving.
I hope the more moderate predictions are correct: that Iran is several years away from building a working bomb, leaving enough time for the current authoritarian theocracy to be replaced with a more benign government.
As ordinary citizens, we can only worry and wring our hands - I don't see any actual preventative action we can take, nor which party we would prevent, nor even if preventing such an attack would be the best thing to do. If we wake up one morning this spring to the terrible announcement of a major new Mideast war, we'll find ourselves in a precarious new world. God help us all.
